This image above shows the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center nearly 48hrs before hurricane Charley hit Charlotte Harbor. As you can see the national Hurricane center outperformed the tropical models at this point and nailed landfall dead on. As Charley approached west Cuba the models began to shift further west indicating more of a Tampa threat. The Nogaps model also shifted west causing NHC to forecast a hit for Tampa within 24hrs before landfall. Port Charlotte & surrounding areas were under a Hurricane Warning the whole time from this graphic on. From NHC archive discussion 5:00AM ET Aug 12th BECAUSE CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA COAST AT A SHARPLY OBLIQUE
ANGLE...IT IS UNUSUALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT CHARLEY'S
LANDFALL...AS SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD CORRESPOND
TO LARGE ERRORS IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL. The media & local officials needed to project as great a threat to Port Charlotte as there was for Tampa. The National Hurricane Center had a good forecast track but had it hit as 115 to 120mph rather than 145mph. Intensity forecast's are problematic & still being worked on but the forecast track was overall very good.