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Tue, Aug 30, 2016 at 10:54 AM
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Ranking of cities and islands affected most by tropical storms and hurricanes


The cities and islands listed below are ranked 1 through 50 with the amount of years between a Storm or Hurricane (inc extratropical) coming within or near the core of that city or island. This ranking method is based on tracking charts dating back to 1871 from every Hurricane Season in the atlantic basin. Wind radii prior to 1990 are based on climatology rather than observed values but on certain storms research has allowed for more accurate wind fields. Keep in mind when viewing this list that Florida and the Western Caribbean get the most action due to vulnerability of all 6 months of Hurricane Season. The Mid Atlantic coast gets many brushes and recurvatures as well as back door extratropical storms. The east Caribbean only has August, September and October as main threats, also note the closeness of locations in Southern locations vrs North. Often times tropical systems expand further North so we have less locations for Northern areas in the database . This list is updated at the end of each Hurricane Season and re-calculated! (Caution! If this list was calculated only on hurricane hits, it would be totally different.)
SciLinks
Rankings = #1 most hits and brushes to #50. This list is compiled out of our 155 cities & islands throughout the coastal United States, Mexico and all Caribbean Islands. The rankings are based on all hurricanes as well as tropical, sub tropical and extratropical systems.

1st Tiebreaker for cities is # of direct hits by Hurricanes.

2nd tiebreaker is # of direct hits by Tropical Storms.



The Top 50!!


Updated to include the 2015 Hurricane Season
rankings last updated on 5/1/16 .


CAUTION!! This ranking system has become very popular with insurance companies, schools and local government offices. The ranking list has shown up on company brochures, text books and government hurricane pamphlets with mistakes. For example, title "Hurricane prone areas Delray Beach, Florida hit by hurricanes every 2.24 years") is not true, this is for both TROPICAL STORMS and hurricanes. We do not want people thinking Delray Beach gets hit by a hurricane every three years. This list changes after each hurricane season, so if you are planning a document to last for more than one year the rankings may be inaccurate. Please allow us to proof read the documents you plan on using before inaccurate information spreads by contacting jim@hurricanecity.com. Under no circumstances may this code be reproduced on other web pages, however you are more than welcome to link to this page. (see comments in hidden html) Thank you!!!

These cities and islands are affected (within or near core **subjective to wind fields**) the most in the Atlantic Basin SINCE 1871. Example.
1) Cape Hatteras, North Carolina every 1.37 years Had a quiet season in 2015 but remains number one as four areas below were also unaffected. This area has probably more brushes than any other area in the top 50 with many recurvatures just offshore. There are also numerous back door systems from the Gulf of Mexico that have cut through Hatteras on the way out to sea some as extratropical. (affected a whopping 105 times since 1871)
2) Morehead City, North Carolina every 1.55 years Also had a quiet 2015 hurricane season, located just S.W. of Cape Hatteras affected by many of the same systems. Top of the 1.55 group with 25 hurricane hits but overall 12 less storms than Cape Hatteras. (affected 93 times since 1871)
3) Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas every 1.64 years Had a quiet 2015 season and remains in the #3 position and the most affected island in the Bahamas. Located in the N.W Bahamas the island see's many storms turning N.W and North off the state of Florida. (affected 88 times since 1871)
4) Cayman Islands every 1.69 years Been quiet here since 2008 but remains at the #4 position. This is the most affected area in the Caribbean sea, affected 85 times.
5) Wilmington, North Carolina every 1.73 years Was affected by tropical storm Ana in 2015 but remains in same position. Located in the Southeast, North Carolina gets a lot of back door systems and recurvatures just east (affected 83 times).
6) Great Abaco Island, Bahamas every 1.80 years Had a quiet 2015 season but remains in the same position. If this list was for hurricane hits only this island would be #1 with 39 hurricane hits since 1871 (affected 80 times since 1871)
7) Andros Island, Bahamas every 1.85 years Had a quiet 2015 hurricane season and remains at the #7 position. Less hurricane hits than Great Abaco being further south and missing many recurving hurricanes with 8 less hurricane hits than Abaco Isl. (affected 78 times since 1871)
8 ) Bermuda every 1.87 years Affected by hurricane Joaquin in 2015 but remains in the same position due to locations above either moving up or already having a significant greater number of storms. This Island has a lot of brushes mainly to the east but also has 35 hurricane hits. (affected 77 times since 1871)
9) Boca Raton, Florida every 1.95 years Had a another quiet season in 2015 but remains tops in Florida. Would be lower ranked if the list was only for hurricanes with 26 hurricane hits.(affected 74 times since 1871)
10) Sable Island, Nova Scotia every 1.95 years Had a quiet 2015 season but remains in same position. Has many extratropical storm hits and is higher ranked than any other northern location. This tiny island gets hit frequently by systems moving out to sea just to the south. (affected 74 times since 1871)
11) Miami, Florida every 2.00 years Had a quiet 2015 season but remains in the same position. Tops of the 2.00 group with 31 hurricane hits. (affected 72 times since 1871)
12) Hollywood, Florida every 2.03 years Also had another quiet 2015 hurricane season but remains in the same position. Top of the 2.03 group with 28 hurricane hits. (affected 71 times)
13) Boynton Beach, Florida every 2.03 years Had another quiet hurricane season in 2015 and remains in the same position , 27 hurricane hits. (affected 71 times since 1871)
14) Savannah, Georgia every 2.03 years Had a quiet 2015 season and remains in the same position. Hurricanes (18) nine less than Boynton puts this city below despite same number of named storms.This city gets brushed by many systems cutting across from Gulf Of Mexico and recurvatures just off shore. (affected 71 times since 1871)
15) Myrtle Beach, South Carolina every 2.04 years Hit by tropical storm Ana in 2015 and moves up 3 positions jumps 3 cities below by having more tropical storm direct hits. As you head North of Georgia the hit rate goes up considerably from systems crossing from Gulf into Atlantic 18 hurricanes. This is the most affected city in South Carolina by named storms. (affected 71 times)
16) Spring Hill, Florida every 2.03 years Had a quiet 2015 season and drops one position five less hurricane hits 13 than Myrtle beach. This city gets many back door systems from the Atlantic crossing into the Gulf. (affected 71 times since 1871)
17) Tarpon Springs, Florida every 2.03 years Had a quiet 2015 season and drops one position . Ranked at bottom of the 2.03 group with 12 hurricane hits . Area affected by many storms crossing the state and recurving just East while inland. (affected 71 times since 1871)
18) Isle of Youth, Cuba every 2.06 years Had another quiet 2015 season and drops one position but tops of the 2.06 group with 27 hurricane hits. This is the most affected city by named storms in Cuba. (affected 70 times since 1871)
19) Eleuthera Island, Bahamas every 2.09 years Hit by tropical storm Kate late in 2015 and jumps two positions, tops of the 2.09 group with 34 hurricane hits. (affected 69 times since 1871)
20) Palm Beach,Florida every 2.09 years Had another quiet season in 2015 and drops one position, 25 hurricane hits nine less than Eleuthera Isl. (affected 69 times)
21) Tampa, Florida every 2.09 years Had a quiet 2015 season and drops one position. Area affected by many storms crossing the state and recurving just east while inland. 11 Hurricane hits puts Tampa at bottom of the 2.09 group.(affected 69 times since 1871)
22) Bimini,Bahamas every 2.15 years Had another quiet 2015 hurricane season and remains in same position ,tops of the 2.15 group with 33 Hurricane hits . (affected 67 times since 1871)
23) Lake Worth, Florida every 2.15 years Had another quiet hurricane season in 2015 season and remains in same place,26 hurricane hits. (affected 67 times since 1871)
24) Saint Augustine, Florida every 2.15 years Had a quiet 2015 season and remains in same position. Bottom of the 2.13 group with only 11 hurricane hits but ranked this high due to many tropical storm hits and brushes. (affected 67 times since 1871)
25) Cat Island, Bahamas every 2.18 years Had a busy 2015 season hit by hurricane Joaquin and tropical storm Kate jumping four positions . Top of the 2.18 group with 30 hurricane hits. (affected 66 times since 1871)
26) Deerfield Beach, Florida every 2.18 years Had another quiet 2015 season and drops one position, 27 hurricane hits second in the 2.18 group. (affected 66 times since 1871)
27) Jupiter, Florida every 2.18 years Had a quiet 2015 season and drops one position, hurricane hits (25) . (affected 66 times since 1871)
28) Turks & Caicos Islands every 2.18 years Had a quiet season in 2015 and drops one position,5 less hurricane hits (20) than Jupiter puts area at bottom of the 2.18 group. (affected 65 times since 1871)
29) Long Island, Bahamas every 2.22 years Hit by hurricane Joaquin in 2015 and jumps three positions, 26 direct hurricane hits puts island at top of the 2.22 group.(affected 65 times)
30) Sarasota, Florida every 2.22 years Had another quiet 2015 season and drops one position, 15 hurricane hits puts Sarasota at the bottom of the 2.22 group. (affected 65 times since 1871)
31) Cabo Corrientes, Cuba (west tip) every 2.25 years Had another quiet season in 2015 and drops one position, 26 hurricane hits puts this area tops in the 2.25 group. (affected 64 times since 1871)
32) Fort Lauderdale, Florida every 2.25 years Had yet another quiet season in 2015 and drops one position , 25 hurricane hits . (affected 64 times since 1871)
33) Grand Isle, Louisiana every 2.25 years Had a quiet 2015 season and remains in the same position. The most affected area in Louisiana as it sticks out into the Gulf. Hit by 24 hurricanes keeps this area near the bottom of the 2.25 group. (affected 64 times)
34) Beaufort, South Carolina every 2.25 years Had a quiet 2015 season and remains in the same position. Area has had numerous back door extratropical systems from the Gulf and Atlantic. Bottom of the 2.25 group with 18 hurricane hits. (affected 64 times since 1871)
35) Delray Beach, Florida every 2.29 years Had another quiet season in 2015 but remains in the same position, 28 hurricane hits puts area at top of the 2.29 group. (affected 63 times)
36) Homosassa, Florida every 2.29 years Had a quiet 2015 season and remains in the same position,13 hurricane hits towards bottom of 2.29 group. (affected 63 times)
37) New Orleans, Louisiana every 2.29 years Had a quiet 2015 season and remains in same position. Nine direct hurricane hits puts this city at the bottom of the 2.29 group (affected 63 times)
38) Pensacola, Florida every 2.32 years Had a quiet 2015 season and remains in same position. 18 hurricane hits puts Pensacola 1st in the 2.32 group. (affected 62 times)
39) Georgetown, South Carolina every 2.32 years Affected by tropical storm Ana in 2015 moves up two positions, 15 hurricane hits . (affected 62 times since 1871)
40) Elizabeth City, North Carolina every 2.32 years Had a quiet 2015 season and drops one position. Bottom of the 2.32 group with 13 hurricane hits. Close to the Outer Banks but too far north & misses many systems headed into the Atlantic from the WSW as well as recurvatures just east keeps this area far below nearby Cape Hatteras. (affected 62 times since 1871)
41) Stuart, Florida every 2.36 years Had another quiet season in 2015 and drops 1 position.Top of the 2.36 group with 25 hurricane hits (affected 61 times since 1871.)
42) Acklins Island, Bahamas every 2.36 years Hit by hurricane Joaquin in 2015 and moves up two positions ,22 hurricane hits. (affected 61 times since 1871)
43) Florida City, Florida every 2.40 years Had another quiet 2015 season and drops 1 position. Florida City south into the Florida Keys are lower ranked than S.E. Florida cities further north due to many storms climbing north upon approach to Florida. Tops of the 2.40 group with 27 hurricane hits. (affected 60 times since 1871.)
44) Nassau, Bahamas every 2.40 years Had a quiet 2015 season and drops 1 position ,has 25 hurricane hits. Being a very tiny island has the surrounding larger Bahama Islands having more affects and ranked higher. (affected 60 times since 1871)
45) Norfolk,Virginia every 2.40 years Had a quiet 2015 season and remains in the same position. Only 13 hurricane hits puts this city near the bottom of the 2.40 group. (affected 60 times since 1871)
46) Sydney, Nova Scotia every 2.40 years Had another quiet season in 2015 but remains in the same position. Bottom of the 2.40 group with only 6 hurricane hits since 1871. Many more systems brush or hit Sable Island #10 and then brush Sydney on the way N.E. (affected 60 times)
47) San Salvador,Bahamas every 2.44 years Hit by hurricane Joaquin in 2015 and moves up five positions. This island would be ranked much higher if this was for hurricanes only with 29 hurricane hits tops of the 2.44 group.(affected 59 times since 1871)
48) Panama City, Florida every 2.44 years Had a quiet 2015 season and drops one more position. With 17 direct hurricane hits rates area second in the 2.44 group. (affected 59 times since 1871)
49) Cape Cod,Massachusetts every 2.44 years Had a quiet 2015 season and drops one position. Wins tie breaker with Mobile Alabama with 5 more TS hits. (affected 59 times since 1871)
50) Mobile, Alabama every 2.44 years Had another quiet season in 2015 and drops one more position. 16 Hurricane hits puts area in near the bottom of the 2.44 group. (affected 59 times since 1871)
51) Cape Sable, Nova Scotia every 2.44 years Had a quiet 2015 season and is bounced from the top 50 (affected 59 times since 1871)
52) Ormond Beach, Florida every 2.44 years Had a quiet 2015 season and remains out of the top 50. Bottom of the 2.44 group with only 12 hurricane hits Many recurvatures off the coast & brushes from the S.W. (affected 59 times since 1871)

Just to let you know the last ranked city #153 is Prinzapolca,Nicaragua (only 8 times or every 18 years by a named storm).
To see the rest of the unranked cities click here.

How is this done? Example #1 Cape Hatteras affected (within or near core) 105 times since 1871 or 144 years divided by 105 times = 1.37 years. These city rankings are based on the HurricaneCity list of cities located here. Your coastal city may not be ranked because it is not in the database but just figure in between the nearest cities to you.

NOTE: If your city or island gets action (for example every 3 years) that does not mean you will get hit every 3 yrs or within 3 years but most do, as these are just averages over the last 144 years.

Here is a map from NOAA showing mean occurrence of named storms 1944-1997 showing how accurate these rankings are.
Sources include National Hurricane Center tracking charts and advisory archives.

Questions? Please contact Jim Williams... jim@hurricanecity.com


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