AXNT20 KNHC 261015

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A strengthening Bermuda high will 
induce nocturnal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia 
beginning this evening and ending by sunrise Thursday. Gale force 
winds will return to the area Thursday night and end by sunrise 
Friday. Seas will build to 9-13 ft in the south-central Caribbean 
off the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website for more details.


A tropical wave is along 37W from 02N-14N, moving W around 15 kt.
A TPW maximum is noted just behind the wave's axis. Model 
guidance also supports this position. Scattered moderate showers 
and isolated tstorms are noted from 03N-09N between 31W-42W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 50W from 06N-18N, moving W at 
10-15 kt. This position is supported by model guidance. Dry 
Saharan air surrounds the wave, limiting convection at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W from 09N-21N,
moving W around 15 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave.

A tropical wave extends from 17N86W in the NW Caribbean southward
through Central America and into the East Pacific. Scattered
moderate convection is seen over eastern Nicaragua and the waters
off of Costa Rica and Panama. Isolated tstorms are over E 
Honduras and the waters N of Honduras.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N17W
to 07N20W to 06N25W. The ITCZ begins near 06N25W to 06N34W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 05N39W to the coast of South 
America near 05N52W. Aside from the convection described near the
tropical wave, scattered moderate showers are noted within 90 nm 
N and 150 nm S of the ITCZ between 42W-48W.


Weak surface and low-mid level ridging is over the north-central
and northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Mid-level southerlies over the
western Gulf continue to draw moist tropical air northward. In
addition, a surface trough is analyzed over the W Gulf from 28N92W
to 23N96W. Broken clouds along with isolated showers cover much 
of the western Gulf of Mexico. Scattered tstorms are seen along
the coast from Tampico to Veracruz. Farther east, isolated 
showers and tstorms are seen in a small area offshore of SW
Florida and in the Yucatan Channel. The latest ASCAT pass shows 
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Gulf, to the north and
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.

A trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to
strong winds each night through Thu night as it moves west-
northwest over the SW Gulf. A weak trough is forecast to move 
westward across the eastern Gulf tonight through Thu, reaching the
central Gulf by Fri, with little impact in winds and seas. 
Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the remainder of the Gulf waters,
supporting gentle to moderate winds through Sun night. 


Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves
mentioned in the section above, isolated showers and tstorms are 
seen south of Cuba and in the Yucatan Channel. Gentle easterly 
trades are noted across the northwest Caribbean, and moderate to 
fresh east winds prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean 
Sea. The most recent ASCAT pass shows some strong winds in the 
Gulf of Honduras and off the N coast of Colombia.

A weak pres gradient between the Bermuda high and low pres over 
northern Colombia is producing generally moderate to fresh trade 
winds across the Caribbean, with strong breezes N of Colombia, 
in the Gulf of Venezuela and the Gulf of Honduras. The Bermuda 
high will strengthen beginning today increasing winds across the 
central and SW basin through the weekend. Winds will pulse to 
minimal gale force NW of the coast of Colombia at night through 
Thu night, and then again Sat night. Expect also some increasing 
winds and seas E of the Lesser Antilles Fri through Sun.


Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the 
tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.
A surface trough extends from 31N50W to 28N57W. Upper-level 
diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection along and 
within 180 nm SE of the trough, mainly north of 24N between 46W- 

A trough NE of the Bahamas will move westward through Thu, likely
reaching Florida by Fri. The pres gradient on the SW side of the 
Bermuda high will remain weak, producing light to gentle winds in 
the area today. The Bermuda high will strengthen tonight through 
Sun night, and trade winds will increase to moderate E of the 
Bahamas, and to a fresh breeze across the Old Bahama Channel, and 
N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage. 

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