AXNT20 KNHC 252245
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 46.2N 44.3W at 25/2100 
UTC or 365 nm E of Cape Race Newfoundland moving ENE at 40 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is mostly 300 nm in the NE quadrant.  Little change in
strength is expected over the next several hours, and Epsilon is 
expected to become a large and powerful extratropical cyclone 
tonight. Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, 
the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions
of the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada 
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at 
website-https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the 
latest Epsilon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Zeta is centered near 17.7N 83.4W at 25/2100 UTC
or 265 nm SSE of the western tip of Cuba. Zeta is stationary.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous strong 
convection is 260 nm in the southern semicircle. Zeta is 
stationary, but a generally northwestward motion is expected 
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center 
of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move 
near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan 
Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on 
Tuesday and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. 
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Zeta is 
expected to become a hurricane before it moves near or over the 
Yucatan Peninsula late Monday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest on 
Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 03N to 15N, moving 
westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
where the wave meets the ITCZ, particularly from 07N-13N between 
34W-38W. 

A tropical wave is located along 51W from 05N to 19N, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in
the northern portion of the wave axis from 13N-20N between 
48W-54W. This convection is being enhanced to the west by an 
upper-level trough with an axis just E of Barbados. Fresh winds
are also noted to the E of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is across the central Caribbean with an axis
along 73W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted west of the wave from 14N-19N between
73W-79W. ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong east trades south of
Hispaniola and east of the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Guinea near 10N14W to
09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 08N34W, the west of
the tropical wave near 08N38W and dives southwest to 03N50W near
the coast of Brazil. Besides the convection mentioned in the 
tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from
03N-12N between 20W-34W, and from 03N-07N between 38W-48W. ASCAT
Shows moderate to fresh easterly trades along and north of the 
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on 
Tropical Storm Zeta in the western Caribbean Sea. 

As of 25/2100 UTC, a cold front enters the NE Gulf from the
Panhandle of Florida near 29N83W to 24N89W, then transitions
To a stationary front to 22N97W N of Tampico, Mexico. The front
is void of precipitation and is expected to dissipate tonight. 
ASCAT indicates moderate SE winds north of the stationary front
From 22N to 27N near Corpus Christi. Elsewhere, scattered showers
are over S Florida and the Straits of Florida. Looking ahead, 
another cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf early on Wed 
followed by fresh to strong winds. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on 
Tropical Storm Zeta in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Zeta is 
expected to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds across central
and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast
Yucatan Peninsula, and adjacent waters through Wednesday, with 
localized amounts of 12 inches possible.

Fresh winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail east of the
Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean into mid-week. 

Tropical Storm Zeta will move to 18.7N 84.3W Mon morning, 
strengthen to a hurricane near 19.7N 85.7W Mon afternoon, move
inland over the Yucatan Peninsula near 21.1N 87.6W Tue morning, 
then offshore near 23.2N 89.6W Tue afternoon, 25.7N 90.8W Wed 
morning, and move inland over southern Louisiana and weaken to a
tropical storm near 29.4N 90.3W Wed afternoon. Zeta will weaken 
to a tropical depression near 37.0N 83.0W by Thu afternoon. Fresh
winds will prevail over the east-central Caribbean through the 
next 24 hours due to the pressure gradient between Zeta and high 
pressure over the Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on 
Hurricane Epsilon. Long-period northeast swell generated from 
T.S. Epsilon in the north Atlantic will continue to impact areas
northeast Of the Bahamas through tonight, and will also affect 
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east 
coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next 
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.

A couple of tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa 
and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section
for details. 

A surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas extending from a 
1013 mb low pressure near 31N78W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from the northern Bahamas 27N-31N between 67W-78W,
and is being enhanced by upper level diffluence.

A 1029 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N32W. This broad 
high is enhancing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 
16N- 28N E of 55W. Strong NE winds are occurring between Western 
Sahara and the Cabo Verde Islands.

Tropical Storm Zeta will remain west of the area, but will bring 
heavy rain and gusty winds to South Florida, the Florida 
Straits, and adjacent waters into mid-week. 

$$
MTorres