AXPZ20 KNHC 250240
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0240 UTC Thu Apr 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

A surface trough extends from 06N78W to 06N92W. The ITCZ begins 
near 06N92W and continues to 07N120W, then resumes west of a 
surface trough from 07N122W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along the trough and the ITCZ east of 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A broad surface ridge persists over the Baja California offshore
waters. Latest scatterometer data showed moderate to locally 
fresh NW winds over the waters west of Baja California Sur. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds prevailed between Baja 
California Norte and Guadalupe Island. In general, gentle NW flow
will prevail west of Baja California over the next several days 
as weak high pressure reorganizes west of the offshore waters 
along 26N. Moderate NW winds are expected between Punta Eugenia 
and Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend.

Gulf of California: Light to moderate winds will prevail across 
the Gulf through Sun with seas generally 3 ft or less. Moderate
to fresh S to SW winds may develop over the northern Gulf Sun 
night ahead of an approaching cold front with seas building to
3-5 ft.

Gentle W to NW winds prevail across the offshore waters between 
Las Tres Marias and Puerto Angel, where seas are generally 4-5 
ft in mixed NW and S swell. Little change in overall conditions 
is expected through the weekend.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak pressure gradient over southern 
Mexico will result in generally light to gentle onshore winds 
across the region through Thu night. Strong N gap winds will 
develop over the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Fri through Sat as 
high pressure builds over eastern Mexico behind a cold front 
moving SE across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds may pulse to near 
gale force speeds late Fri night with seas building to 10 ft by 
Sat morning. Winds will diminish to gentle Sat night and Sun as 
high pressure moves eastward and the local pressure gradient 
relaxes. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh easterly winds will continue across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu. A weakening pressure 
gradient will allow winds to diminish to more gentle speeds Thu 
night through Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure building north 
of the region will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds over 
the Gulf again on Sun night. 

Gulf of Panama: Moderate N to NE winds will persist across the 
Gulf of Panama through Thu with 4-6 ft seas, becoming 3-5 ft in 
mixed SW swell and N wind waves. Then, winds will become light 
through the weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes over the 
region.

Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will 
remain 3-6 ft in S to SW swell as gentle winds prevail across 
the southern waters. By Fri, seas will build to 5-7 ft near the 
Galapagos Islands as a new pulse of S to SW swell moves into the 
region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends across the northern waters with 
1027 mb high pressure centered north of the forecast area near 
36N138W. Latest scatterometer and altimeter data revealed a 
swath of moderate to fresh trade winds and seas 7-9 ft roughly 
from 11N to 13N west of 123W. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds 
prevail south of the ridge with seas less than 8 ft. Elsewhere, 
a surface trough producing minor waves in the easterly flow are 
igniting areas of scattered convection described above, with the 
trough in the trade wind belt along 121W.

A deep layered upper level low pressure system across the NW 
waters will weaken the surface ridge tonight, and the slackening
pressure gradient will result in subsiding trade winds and seas 
across the tropics. Weak low pressure is expected to develop near
28.5N134W by Thu night and remain nearly stationary through Fri.
Seas will remain less than 8 ft within the associated moderate 
to fresh tradewinds. 

Another round of SW swell will move into the far southern waters 
Thu with seas again building to 8 ft. Similar wave heights will 
persist through the weekend as SW swell continues impacting the 
region.

$$

ERA