AXPZ20 KNHC 072102
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Aug 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly-upgraded Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 17.6N 
110.7W at 07/2100 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas near and north of the center range
from 12 to 14 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong 
convection is noted within 120 nm in the northeast quadrant. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 210 nm in
the southeast semicircle. Gradual strengthening is forecast 
during the next couple of days, but Howard is expected to remain 
a tropical storm. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and 
Forecast/Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern tropical Pacific with its 
axis along 84W north of 04N to across western Panama and into 
the western Caribbean Sea, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 80W and 
89W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 130W from 04N to 17N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 125W and 135W.

A tropical wave previously along 140W has moved W of the area
into the central Pacific.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 07N93W to 12N102W, then extends from southwest of 
Tropical Storm Howard from 11N112W to 12N124W to 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 
111W and 125W and from 07N to 15N between 135W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details newly-
upgraded Tropical Storm Howard.

Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring in the Gulf of
California. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds prevail across 
the Baja California offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia, where
seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are pulsing in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Mainly light to 
gentle winds are noted elsewhere away from Tropical Storm Howard.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the area, except 3 ft or less north of
the entrance to the Gulf of California, and 4 to 6 ft south of 
20N and east of 110W.

For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Howard, fresh to 
strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area from through 
the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja 
California Norte will diminish this afternoon. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to locally strong winds are in the Papagayo region, with 
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft. 
Scattered thunderstorms are offshore Colombia northward to 
offshore Costa Rica.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, pulsing
to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on newly
upgraded Tropical Storm Howard.

A broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the
monsoon trough. Trades are moderate to fresh north of the 
monsoon trough to 24N and west of 125W between the ridging and 
passing tropical waves, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere.
Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of 
the monsoon trough and west of 105W, with moderate winds 
elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 24N and west of 125W, and 
4 to 7 ft elsewhere outside of Tropical Storm Howard.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 24N
and west of 125W through today. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 
120W, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the 
open waters. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will prevail north of 24N and west
of 125W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will dominate the remainder of the 
open waters, building to 7 to 9 ft over the west-central waters 
into the early part of the week with a fresh and elongated fetch
of trades. Seas may also build to around 8 ft near 03.4S early 
the week in a southerly swell.

A new and large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
is associated with a broad tropical wave, with an axis along
130W, located more than 1000 miles east- southeast of the 
Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual development of this system is 
possible through the middle part of this week while it moves 
generally westward into the central Pacific basin.

$$
KONARIK