AXPZ20 KNHC 171604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwestern Colombia to the coast 
at 08N78W to 08N87W and to 05N96W, where scatterometer data from
last night showed that it continues to 02N110W to 01N120W and to
01N130W. No significant convection is noted.
 
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A strong ridge extends southeastward across the discussion area,
through 32N134W to 27N125W and to near 22N113W. The tight
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower surface pressure 
that is present over the southwestern United States and 
Mexico is supporting 25 to 30 kt northwest winds within 60 nm of
the coast of Baja California, while northwest of 20-25 kt are 
over the offshore waters of Baja California east of about 120 nm 
and south to near 23N. Seas associated with these winds are in 
the range of 10 to 16 ft. As the energy from the northwest swell
responsible for these waveheight begins to dissipate on Mon, 
this will allow for the the large waves to begin to slowly 
subside through the next few days.

The combination of the strong winds and large NW swell will 
produce very rough and dangerous marine conditions across the 
open waters through Mon, and generate very large and shifting 
waves along the coasts. The wind speeds off Baja California will 
gradually diminish to 15 to 20 kt on Mon, and mainly 10 to 15 kt
by late Tue. Waveheight will lower to the range of 8 to 10 ft on
Tue.

Gulf of California: Strong low pressure and its associated 
cold front will move across the northern part of the Gulf of 
California tonight, bringing fresh to strong winds to the 
northern part of the Gulf of California tonight into Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle northeast winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will increase
again to the mainly moderate speeds on Mon, and to stronger
speeds of fresh to moderate Mon night into Tue. Light and 
variable winds are expected elsewhere through Tue, except for 
the Gulf of Panama where moderate northerly winds are expected.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A very strong 1040 mb high pressure center, well to the north- 
northeast of the Hawaiian Islands near 41N145W, will change 
little through Tue. Its ridge axis stretches southeastward to
tropics to near 22N113W. The pressure difference between this 
ridge and broad low pressure to the west of the forecast waters 
is resulting in a tight pressure gradient across the area N of
about 08N and W of 110W. Northeast to east winds of 20 to 25 kt
are west of a line from 32N139W to 22N131W to 18N121W to 14N128W
and to 14N140W. Seas generated by these winds are in the range of 
10 to 16 ft. The present overall synoptic pattern will change 
very little through the next couple of days as low pressure west 
of the area near 24N155W pulls off to the northwest. The 
aforementioned strong northeast to east winds will continue, but
over a smaller section of the weatern side of the discussion 
area. The 10 to 16 ft seas there will slowly subside to around 
the 10 to 11 ft through the next 48 hours as the large swell 
gradually loses its energy.

$$
Aguirre