AXPZ20 KNHC 231601

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1422 UTC Tue Jul 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 


Tropical Storm Dalila is centered near 18.7N 117.7W at 23/1500 
UTC, moving NNW at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure 
is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 
45 kt. Dalila will turn toward the NW this afternoon, then 
weaken to below tropical storm strength tonight and to a remnant
low by Wed night. Dalila will continue to weaken and turn toward
the WNW Thu and Fri and dissipate by Sat. Dalila is experiencing
wind shear from the N. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is displaced to within 150 nm in the SW quadrant of 
the partially exposed low level center. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is evident farther out within 270 nm 
in the SW quadrant.

Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave with axis along 91W extends southward from 
Central America into the far eastern Pacific, moving west around 
10 kt. No significant convection is currently associated with 
this tropical wave.

A tropical wave with axis near 104W is moving west around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed on
the NE side of this tropical wave from 11N to 18N between 100W
and 103W. 

A tropical wave with axis along 131W is moving west around 10 
kt. No significant convection is noted near this tropical wave.


The monsoon trough extends from 09N73W to 10N76W to 08N86W to 
10N100W to 13N107W. Another segment of the monsoon trough extends
from 14N120W to 11N128W. The intertropical convergence zone 
reaches from 08N133W to 06N137W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N E of 88W, from 05N 
to 15N between 93W and 100W and within 60 nm either side of a 
line from 12.5N120W to 10N131W to 06N139W.


Fresh S winds and seas to 9 ft will impact the waters around 
Clarion Island this morning as Tropical Storm Dalila makes its 
closet point of approach around 120 nm to the W of the island. 
The strong winds and high seas associated with Dalila will remain
well to the W of the offshore waters of Baja California, beyond 
300 nm, as the storm moves farther to the NW and weakens later 
today. The track of Dalila will weaken the subtropical ridge, 
allowing gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across the 
remainder of the open waters off Baja California, and over the 
Gulf of California. No significant gap wind events or long- 
period swell are anticipated to affect the Mexican offshore zones
through mid week. The next round of fresh to strong N gap winds 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is not expected until after the 
passage of a tropical wave early on Fri. 


Fresh overnight gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will 
diminish by this afternoon. No significant gap winds are expected
through mid week, until late Thu when high pressure north of the
area in the wake of a passing tropical wave will enhance 
overnight drainage winds to produce fresh to strong gap winds. 
Moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will build 
seas to 8 ft or greater off the coast of Panama and Colombia 
before diminishing late Tue. Wave model guidance indicates seas 
may approach 8 ft over the equatorial waters Thu and Fri as long-
period southerly swell moves into the region.


Recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes indicate 
moderate to fresh trade winds from 15N to 25N west of 125W with 
corresponding seas 6 to 8 ft. High pressure measuring 1027 mb 
centered NW of the region near 34N151W is supporting this area of
winds and seas. Farther east, an area of 8 ft seas, mainly with a
component of SW swell, persists northwest of the Galapagos 
Islands from 05N to 08N between 93W and 100W. Seas will subside 
below 8 ft tonight as the SW swell decay. Moderate to fresh S to 
SW winds equatorward of the monsoon trough will maintain seas of 
5 to 7 ft E of 105W through mid week. Another round of long 
period swell from the SE to S will cause seas to build to around 
8 ft along the Equator to the S of the Galapagos Islands by Thu.