AXNT20 KNHC 262106

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2000 UTC.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the border of 
Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W to 06N13W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N13W to 03N26W to 06N46W to near the border of
Brazil and French Guiana near 04N51W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 10W
and 44W.


A cold front extends into the Gulf of Mexico from the northern
Florida Panhandle to 26N90W to across Veracruz, Mexico. Clouds 
with possible embedded showers are noted behind the front. The 
pattern remains fairly dry east of the front with no significant 
shower or thunderstorm activity noted at this time. Fresh to
strong NW-N winds are being funneled along the coast of Mexico
from near Tampico northward to the Texas border and west of the
front. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds follow the front elsewhere along with 4 to 6 ft
seas. Light to gentle N-NE winds are noted ahead of the front
along with mainly 2 to 4 ft seas, except 3 ft or less in the
eastern Gulf. 

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from South Florida to
just south of Veracruz, Mexico by Sat. Fresh to strong winds will
follow the front over the western Gulf through tonight. The 
western portion of the front will lift northward Sat night as low 
pressure develops along it, just offshore the South Texas coast, 
by Sun. The low will move into the south-central Gulf by Sun 
night, then dissipate Mon. The front will weaken as it moves 
southeast of the basin by late Mon or early Tue, ahead of a 
stronger front moving into the northern and western Gulf Sun. 
Looking ahead, the second front will stall from the southeastern 
Gulf to the south-central Gulf by late Tue.


A stationary front terminates in the northern Leeward Islands 
near 17N63W then continues as a remnant shear line through the 
eastern Caribbean south of Puerto Rico to the central Caribbean 
near 15N72W. Winds have diminished somewhat north of the shear 
line now at moderate to fresh levels including through and 
downwind of the Anegada and Mona Passages, as well as the Windward
Passage. Isolated to scattered showers are possible near the 
shear line. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
located near the coast of Colombia and Panama south of 11N east 
of 82W.

A surface trough is analyzed in the NW Caribbean from 20N82W to 
the northern coast of Honduras near 16N87W. Scattered showers are 
near the trough with isolated thunderstorms possible east of the 
trough offshore of the coast of Honduras. Moderate to locally 
fresh winds are in the NW Caribbean from 16N to 20N between 
Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail across the remainder of the basin. Seas of 3 to 6 ft 
dominate the basin, locally to 8 ft near the NE Caribbean 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will 
prevail through the weekend. Moderate northerly swell will 
continue to move into Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands 
and into Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean into Sat. 
Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the northwest 
Caribbean Mon night or early Tue, then stall and dissipate. 


1015 high pressure is centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda 
near 27N71W. A cold front has moved into the waters east of
Florida extending from 31N76W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida.
Fresh to strong westerly winds are found just ahead of and also
behind the front with gale force winds north of 31N. Seas are
building to 6 to 8 ft north of 29N between 75W and 80W. Mainly
light winds prevail elsewhere south of 29N under the broad ridge
with seas of 4 to 7 ft west of 65W in remnant N-NE swell.

A stationary front is well east of 65W, reaching from 31N45W to
23N50W to near the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible north of 22N within 120 nm either side
of the front, with additional deep tropical moisture being
advected from the tropics ahead of it from 10N to 22N all the way
to 40W. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are south of 26N
within 90 nm west of the front, with moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds north of 20N within 120 nm east of the front. A
cold front extends from near the coast of Morocco near 31N10W to
south of the Canary Islands at 26N20W to 31N33W. Fresh to strong
NE-E winds are north of this boundary, along with large 8 to 14 ft
seas in northerly swell. A broad ridge covers the remainder of the
open waters of the tropical Atlantic between the fronts. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds are found across these open waters, along
with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the 
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low
ash concentration can be found in the vicinity of the Volcano,
although the cloud estimate is limited due to the cloud mask. 
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing 
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- 
France, at

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure east of the Bahamas 
will continue moving east tonight as a cold front moves off the 
NE Florida coast. By Sat, this front will stretch from Bermuda to 
the NW Bahamas to near Miami, Florida. The front will then stall 
Sun and dissipate by Mon. A second cold front will move off NE 
Florida Sun night, then reach from Bermuda to southeast Florida by
late Mon into early Tue, then start to stall from 28N65W to the 
Straits of Florida by Tue night. Meanwhile, northerly swell will 
continue to move into the waters northeast of the Virgin and 
Leeward Islands into early next week, then subside.