AXNT20 KNHC 152229
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A recent ASCAT pass depicts gale 
force N to NE winds off the coast of Morocco, north of 30.5N and 
east of 12W, in the Agadir marine area. The forecast from Meteo-
France calls for a continuation of gale force winds in this area 
through 16/0000 this evening. After that time, winds will subside
to about 25 kt. Please refer to the Meteo France High Seas 
Warning and High Seas Forecast products, which can be accessed at
the website: 
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 05N34W to 07N44W. A
westward moving surface trough extends from 07N46W to 03N48W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 09N and west of
30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf of Mexico from
19N94W to 22N98W. CIRA layered precipitable water imagery and 
GOES-16 low and mid level water vapor channels indicate abundant 
moisture over the W Gulf. As a result, scattered showers are 
occurring west of 94W. A 1025 mb high pressure centered over  
North Carolina and Georgia is spreading ridging over the 
northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail over 
the basin, with seas of 4-6 ft. 

High pressure over the Gulf waters will support a continuation 
of moderate to fresh E to SE winds over most areas through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak mid to upper level ridging prevails across the Caribbean,
which is keeping subsidence and relatively dry air across the
basin, with little to no significant precipitation. A recent ASCAT
pass depicts moderate to fresh trades across the south-central 
Caribbean. Moderate trades cover the eastern Caribbean, with 
gentle to moderate NE to E winds over the NW portion of the 
basin. Seas are 7-9 ft over the south-central and SW Caribbean, 
4-6 ft over the eastern and north-central Caribbean, and 3-4 ft 
in the NW portion of the basin.

The Atlantic high pressure ridge N of the area will shift 
eastward and weaken, diminishing winds and seas tonight through 
Mon. Trade winds will increase across the south-central Caribbean
late Mon through Wed as high pressure builds across the W 
Atlantic. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the far eastern Atlantic near the
coast of Morocco. See the Special Features section above for 
details.

A cold front extends from a 1017 mb surface low centered near
30N62W to 24N75W. Scattered showers are near and within 90 nm SE
of the front. The latest ASCAT pass depicts mainly gentle to 
moderate winds on both sides of the front. However, fresh NE 
winds prevail east of northern Florida, mainly north of 28N and 
west of 77W. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring to the NW of 
the low pressure, mainly north of 31N. Seas are 6-8 ft east of 
Florida and 5-7 ft across the remainder of the western Atlantic, 
to the E and NE of the Bahamas. To the east, surface ridge prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high 
centered near 33N28W. Strong to near gale force N to NE winds 
prevail from the Canary Islands to Morocco, with seas of 8-12 ft.
Seas are 4-6 ft over the central subtropical Atlantic north of 
20N, with gentle winds. Seas are 6-8 ft over the tropical 
Atlantic south of 20N, with moderate to fresh trades

The front will dissipate west of 65W by Sunday. Winds will 
increase north of 25N and west of 70W late Tue through Wed as 
high pressure builds across the W Atlantic.

$$
ERA