AXNT20 KNHC 250537

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N13W to near 
03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 03S30W to the coast of 
Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
monsoon trough from 03N-05N between 13W-18W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 01S-06S between


A 1007 mb low is centered over E Texas near 31N96W. A cold front 
extends SW to S Texas. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate 
convection over the NW Gulf of Mexico N of 27N between 94W-96W.
A 1019 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 29N74W producing 10-20
kt SE return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Weakest winds are over
the NE Gulf, and strongest winds are over the W Gulf W of 90W.
Light to medium smoke is over the SW Gulf W of a line from Corpus
Christi Texas to Merida Mexico. In the upper levels, a sharp 
trough is over Texas, while a ridge is over the Gulf. 

High pressure over the eastern Gulf will shift eastward ahead of 
a cold front moving off the Texas coast Thu morning. Thunderstorms
will accompany the front as it shifts east early Fri before 
becoming stationary from west central Florida to northeast Yucatan
by late Fri. High pressure will build in the wake of the front 
over the northern Gulf coast through Sun as the front gradually 
dissipates by early next week. 


A 1009 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N74W. Isolated 
moderate convection is over N Colombia and NW Venezuela. Scattered
showers are over the SE Caribbean S of 16N and E of 70W. More 
scattered showers are over Hispaniola and E Cuba. 10-20 kt 
tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along 
the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, strong subsidence 
covers the entire Caribbean Sea. 

Moderate to fresh trade winds across the south central and 
eastern Caribbean will slowly diminish into Sunday as high 
pressure north of the area weakens. Trade winds will increase 
again early next week as the high pressure builds again north of 
the region.


A 1019 mb high is over the western Atlantic near 29N74W. A 
surface trough is east of the high from near 31N63W to 26N70W. A 
1013 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 29N55W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the center. Another 1014 mb low is 
centered over the central Atlantic near 29N47W. Scattered showers
are well E of the low N of 27N between 35W-42W. Another surface 
trough is over the central Atlantic from 25N40W to 14N59W. 
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. 

The surface trough in the western Atlantic will dissipate 
overnight. High pressure northeast of the northern Bahamas will 
shift east through Thu ahead of a cold front moving off the 
northeast Florida coast Fri evening. The front will move east and 
stall from Bermuda to the northern Florida Keys by late Sat, then 
dissipate as it moves slowly northward through early next week. 

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