AXNT20 KNHC 141656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1156 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

The current Gulf of Mexico cold front is along: 30N89W 19N95W.
The 14/1200 UTC forecast consists of: Expect GALE-FORCE NW winds,
and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, from 23N to 27N 
W of 95W. The GALE-FORCE wind conditions are expected to continue
until a few hours after sunset today. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is 
listed on the website: the website: www.meteofrance.com/ 
previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.
GALE-FORCE winds are forecast for the area that is called:
AGADIR. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 
09N20W. A surface trough is along 09N21W 09N22W 05N23W 02N24W.
The ITCZ continues from 03N26W to 01N32W and 01N38W. Widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N 
to 10N between 11W and 23W, and from 01N to 01S between 46W and
50W, including in coastal sections of Brazil. Isolated moderate 
rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W 
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is digging through the areas from Oklahoma,
Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana into the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico.
The trough is supporting a cold front that is moving toward the
east-southeast, passing through southern Mississippi, to 29N88W,
into the central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, at the coast of Mexico near 19N96W, curving northwestward,
inland in Mexico, beyond 22N99W. A surface trough follows the cold
front, within 200 nm to 300 nm to the northwest of the cold front
from 25N northward. Scattered strong rainshowers are within 30 nm
on either side of the line from 25N86W to 28N85W, and then from
28N to 31N between 82W and 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 26N to 28N between 81W and 84W off the
coast of SW Florida. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N
northward from 76W westward.

The current cold front will reach the Port of Tampa to Yucatan 
Channel this evening, and continue eastward passing through the 
Bahama Channel on Saturday night. Strong to near gale force 
southerly wind flow, and scattered thunderstorms, will precede 
the front across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale 
force northwesterly wind flow will continue west of the front 
through sunrise on Saturday, with an embedded area of gale-force 
wind conditions across the west central waters early this 
afternoon. Moderate west flow is expected on Saturday evening as 
the seas subside. Light northerly winds are forecast on Monday. 
Moderate return flow will set up across the northwest waters on 
Tuesday, with broad low pressure developing in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
A low level trough extends from northern sections of Colombia to
14N80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N southward from
80W westward. Low level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, encompassing the waters that are to the north 
of Honduras and to the east of Belize. Rainshowers are possible 
from 15N to 19N between 80W and 86W. The monsoon trough is along
07N/08N from 74W in Colombia beyond 84W in the eastern Pacific 
Ocean.

Rainshowers are possible from 70W eastward, and from 16N northward
between 70W and 80W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for 
the period that ended at 13/120000 UTC...according to the PAN 
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 
KNHC...are 0.39 in Trinidad, 0.16 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, and 
0.02 in Guadeloupe, in Montego Bay in Jamaica, and in St. Thomas 
in the U.S. Virgin Islands. 

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea
east of 80W through early Sunday. Expect nocturnal pulses to near
gale force off the northwest coast of Colombia. A cold front will
enter the Yucatan Channel this evening, stall, and then gradually
dissipate in the NW Caribbean Sea from Saturday through Monday. 
Strong north winds are forecast west of the front across the Gulf 
of Honduras from late tonight through late Sunday. Large north 
swell will reach the Leeward Islands on Saturday, and spread 
southward through the northeast Atlantic Ocean passages during 
the upcoming weekend, and subside from the north early next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N38W to 26N49W to 25N55W. The front
continues as warm from 25N55W to 26N76W, about 60 nm to the east
of Abaco Island in the Bahamas. Broken multilayered clouds and 
possible rainshowers are to the north and northwest of the frontal
boundary.

One surface trough is along 27N43W 23N46W 15N48W. Rainshowers are
possible from 10N to 25N between 35W and 53W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 13/120000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.59 in 
Freeport in the Bahamas. 

An upper level trough passes the west central coastal sections of
Mauritania, across the Cabo Verde Islands, to 15N35W, 12N49W, to 
the coastal border area of Venezuela and Guyana. Comparatively 
drier air in subsidence surrounds the trough: from 12N to 20N
between Africa and 40W, from 10N to 22N between 40W and 50W, and
from 20N southward between 50W and 60W.

The current frontal boundary will accelerate to the north tonight,
and gradually wash out across the far northeastern part of the
area on Saturday, with strong east to southeast flow ahead of the
boundary. Strong to near gale force southerly return flow will 
continue elsewhere north of the Bahamas, ahead of a cold front 
that will reach from 31N77W to the Bahama Channel on Saturday 
evening, reach from 31N72W to central Cuba on Sunday, and from 
Bermuda to eastern Cuba on Monday. The front will stall across 
the tropical waters north of Antilles by the middle of next week,
with the remnants moving northward late next week.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT