AXNT20 KNHC 181122

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward 
across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along 
the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean.
Gale-force winds began on 18/0900 UTC from 11N-13N between 73W- 
75W, with seas reaching 11 ft. Please refer to the latest 
Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers 
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 09N13W and 
extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N28W to the
coast of South America near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 03N-06N between 08W-18W, and from 00N-04S between 08W-17W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 01N-02S
between 40W-50W.  


As of 0900 UTC, the tail end of a cold front extends from the
Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 26N95W
to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Low stratus and fog are W of 
front. 20-25 kt northerly winds are W of the front. The remainder 
of the basin has 10-20 kt southeast to south flow as a high 
pressure over the western Atlantic extends over the E Gulf waters.

The cold front will extend from Tarpon Springs, Florida SW to the
central gulf to the Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. The front 
will then lift N toward the NW Gulf states through Tue evening 
before moving off the Texas coast again early Wed and stalling 
over the NW Gulf through Fri. Expect fresh to strong NE-E winds N 
of 22N and W of the front tonight through Tue morning. Fresh to 
strong N-NE winds are expected W of the cold front on Wed.


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more 
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central 
Caribbean waters near Colombia.
Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated 
fresh to strong southeast winds over the Gulf of Honduras, and 
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the remainder 
of the basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S
of Hispaniola moving W with the tradewinds. Dry air in the mid- 
to-upper levels continues to dominate the region.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central 
Caribbean through late Fri, reaching minimal gale force along the 
coast of Colombia at night each night through mid week. Strong 
winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters through 
late today and westward past Jamaica by Tue night as strong high 
pressure builds N of the area. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are 
also expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the 
Gulf of Honduras, through Fri. NE to E swell will build over 
Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands by mid week 
continuing through the weekend. 


A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N67W. A 1030
mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 38N24W. This pattern
maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic, 
and moderate to fresh winds over the central and Eastern Atlantic.

A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast this evening, 
then stall over the waters N of 27N Tue. The western part of the 
front will lift N by Tue night, while the eastern part is forecast
to move S-SE until dissipating over the SE waters on Thu. A ridge
will build again by mid week and will prevail through Fri.

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