AXPZ20 KNHC 290718
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Mar 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale conditions are forecast 
to persist in the Tehuantepec region through this morning, with 
seas peaking around 14 to 15 ft in the next few hours. Swell 
generated by this gap wind event will spread southwestward, 
creating 8 to 11 ft seas as far west as 100W and as far south as 
09N by later this morning. Winds and seas will gradually diminish
through early Sat. Marine interests in the Tehuantepec area, 
especially local fishermen, need to take necessary action to 
avoid these hazardous marine conditions.

Large Northerly Swell Event: A series of troughs/cold fronts 
will drop S of 30N across the northerly waters the next few days 
with reinforcing sets of northerly swell. Seas will build to 12 
ft or greater S of 30N tonight, reaching to 25N between 119W and
137W by Sat evening when peak seas are forecast to build to 
around 16 ft along 30N. These seas will continue to spread SE 
through the end of the weekend into early next week before 
subsiding. Wave periods will be 12 to 14 seconds. Very hazardous
marine conditions will occur with these seas over the open 
waters, and also at the coast of Baja California Norte, likely 
resulting in dangerous surf conditions. Please consult products 
from your national weather service for more details on conditions
near the coast.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on
both areas.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from northern Colombia to 05N85W to
04N93W. The ITCZ runs westward from 04N93W to 03N125W to 00N136W.  
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 07N
between 88W and 126W, and from 02N to 10N between 130W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 
read the Special Features section for more details.

A ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California producing gentle to moderate northerly winds, 
with seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. For the Gulf of California,
mainly light to gentle variable winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. 
Other than the Gale Warning area in the Tehuantepec region, 
light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate 
swells prevail for the southern Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, gale conditions and rough to very rough seas 
will persist in the Tehuantepec region through this morning. A
series of troughs/cold fronts are forecast to move through the 
offshore waters of Baja California and Gulf of California through 
the weekend, bringing with it increasing winds and large NW 
swell, including fresh to strong winds ahead of the front in the 
northern Gulf of California tonight through early Mon. This 
swell event could generate very rough seas at the outer offshore 
waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sun morning. Winds may freshen 
near Cabo Corrientes early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are noted in the Gulf of
Papagayo as well as in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light and
variable winds prevail. Seas of 3 to 5 ft in S-SW swell dominate
the offshore waters.

For the forecast, elevated seas due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event will propagate through the outer waters of Guatemala 
and El Salvador through this evening. Winds will pulse to fresh 
to strong in the Papagayo region later this morning through early
Wed, with seas occasionally to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE 
winds in the Gulf of Panama to near the Azuero Peninsula will 
increase to fresh to strong tonight through Sat night with seas 
of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas
will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an
upcoming large northerly swell event over the northern waters.

A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters while a trough 
extends from 30N122W to 27.5N130W to 25N140W. A few showers are 
along the trough. Associated seas of 7 to 9 ft in northerly swell
are spreading S of 30N as described above. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures near the equatorial 
trough/ITCZ maintains moderate to fresh trades from 05N to 22N W
of 125W. Seas are 7 to 8 ft within these winds, as measured by
recent altimeter data. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 
7 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, other than the series of troughs/cold fronts
and associated large northerly swell mentioned above, the ridge
will weaken somewhat and shift S a bit due to the passing
boundaries. The ridge will rebuild next week, helping to freshen
trades N of the equatorial trough/ITCZ. The northerly swells 
will support seas of 7 to 10 ft across the majority of the waters
N of the ITCZ early next week.
 
$$
Lewitsky