Saint Thomas & Saint John, U.S. Virgin Islands' History with Tropical Systems

(br) = Brush (ts) = Tropical Storm (bd) = Back Door, meaning coming from over land from opposite coast. Not all names are noted. Also, storms before 1950 were not named. Not every stat on every storm description is given. (since 1871)

Saint Thomas and Saint John most likely to be hit by a hurricane between September 7th and September 13th

Years within or near core

1871m
1876m
1878ts
1881tsbr
1889
1889tsbr
1891br
1891ts
1893m
1894
1896br
1898br
1898tsbr
1899m
1899br
1899brm
1900tsbr
1901ts
1906br
1908br
1908tsbr
1908br
1910br
1916ts
1916-2
1922m
1924ts
1924br
1928ts
1928m
1931
1932
1933ts
1933brm
1933tsbr
1938ts
1942tsbr
1947tsbr
1949tsbr
1949ts
1950brm
1956br
1960m
1966brm
1979-2ts
1981ts
1984ts
1989m
1990tsbr
1995brm
1995
1996
1998
1999
1999brm
2000
2007subtsbr
2008brm
2010brm
2011ts
2014br
2017m
2017brm
2019
2019ts
2020ts
2022tsbr
2023ts
2024ts

71 times in 153 years (as of end of 2024)

Names from list above (D storms most likely to impact the area)

Dog
Betsy
Donna
Inez
Anna
Frederic
Gert
Klaus
Hugo
Klaus(again)
Luis
Marilyn
Bertha
Georges
Jose
Lenny
Debby
Chris
Olga
Omar
Irene
Gonzalo
Irma
Maria
Dorian
Karen
Laura
Fiona
Philippe
Ernesto

Tropical Storm to Hurricane ratio

TS = 30, 42.25%
H = 41, 57.75%

26.47% of all tropical systems affecting Saint Thomas and Saint John are major hurricanes this includes brushes

Longest gap between storms

12 years 1967-1978

How often this area gets affected?

Brushed or hit every 2.15 years

Average years between direct hurricane hits. (hurricane force winds for a few hours)

Once every 7.29 years. (21 hits)

Average years between major hurricane hits.

Once every 17 years. (9 hits)

Average MPH of hurricane hits. (based on sustained winds from advisories, not gusts)

112 mph

Statistically when this area should be affected next

Before the end of 2026

This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year.

Last affected by

2024 August 13th Tropical Storm Ernesto passes over with 65 mph winds while moving northwest.

This area's hurricane history

1871 August 21st, 115 mph from the east-southeast, 27 killed in the virgin islands. Hit map
1876 September 13th, 115 mph hits from the east. Hit map
1889 September 3rd, 105 mph winds from the southeast
1893 August 16th 115 mph to the south from the southeast. Hit map
1894 October 13th, 95 mph from the south-southeast
1899 August 8th, 150 mph to the south from the east-southeast
1916 August 21st 95 mph from the east-southeast
1916 October 10th, 110 mph from the south
1922 September 16th, 120 mph 43 miles to north of St John
1928 September 13th a category 5, 160 mph just south from the east-southeast heavy damage. US president asking for help
1931 September 10th, 90 mph from the east
1932 September 26th 110 mph from the east.
1960 Hurricane Donna passes just North with 130 mph winds killing 107 in the northern Antilles and puerto rico.Sept 5th, from the east-southeastMore here
1989 September 18th, Hurricane Hugo to the south with 130 mph winds from the southeast but damaged hotels on the south shore, the virgin isle, watergate & island beachcomber were hit hard. NHC wallet
1995 Hurricane Marilyn hits September 16th with 105 mph winds from the southeast causing heavy damage 40% homes destroyed & 80% of businesses were destroyed, pressure 28.35. 1 year later only 2,700 out of 4,000 rooms were available. Newspaper article | Average model error | Disaster survey report
1996 Hurricane Bertha on July 8th with 85 mph winds from the east-southeast. 1 school collapsed some roof damage from 85 mph winds pressure 29.03 NHC report
1998 September 21st, Hurricane Georges with 110 mph winds just south from the east-southeast causes 55 boats to sink in the virgin islands & causes wide spread power outages. NHC report
1999 Hurricane Jose weakens to a tropical storm while hitting with 75 mph winds from the southeast October 21stNHC report
2000 August 22nd, Hurricane Debby brushes just north with 75 mph winds causing minor damage. NHC report
2017 Hurricane Irma southern eye wall passes directly over with 185 mph winds on September 6th causing very heavy destruction while moving west-northwest.Three people dead as of 9/7 There were reports of extensive damage to buildings, and of land entirely stripped of vegetation. Many roads are inaccessible in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and schools are reported to be destroyed. Relief concert | Best track data | Radar animation (Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School) | NHC report
2019 August 28th Hurricane Dorian passes over the island with 80 mph winds while moving northwest, the highest measured storm surge was 1.21 ft above normal tide levels at a NOS gauge at Charlotte Amalie on St. Thomas. One gust reported at 97 mph (per NHC report) Radar animation (Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School) | NHC report

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Stat sources:

Text Sources:

"Divine Wind" by Kerry Emanuel
"Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms" by John M. Williams and Iver W. Duedall
"Florida's Hurricane History" by Jay Barnes
"Hurricane Almanac" by Bryan Norcross
HurricaneCity.com calculations by Jim Williams
"Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States" by Rick Schwartz
"Hurricane Watch" by Dr. Bob Sheets and Jack Williams
"Inside the Hurricane" by Pete Davies
"Isaac's Storm" by Erik Larson
"Killer 'Cane" by Robert Mykle
"Lunatic Wind" by William Price Fox
Miami Herald newspaper (microfilm)
"Path of Destruction" by John McQuaid and Mark Schleifstein
Sun Sentinel newspaper (microfilm)
"The Major Hurricanes To Affect The Bahamas" by Wayne Neely
"The Ship and the Storm" by Jim Carrier
Plus many more......