Hurricane TV

Jim's predictions for the week!!

DISCLAIMER:These weekly predictions are just for fun(although I may be right from time to time) DISCLAIMER:I am not a meteorologist,I am not a forecaster,forecasters have degrees.I check satellite,Models & upper air flows to make my decisions ,basically throwing the dice. Sometimes I may notice something the forecast models do not pick up on. For official advisories and forecast's go to The National hurricane center.
Updated every Monday.(Times may vary) but there will be updated predictions for significant hurricane threats
Accuracy basis per week=0%=a storm forms a day or two after saying no development or completely off on every aspect of current system for the week & something else forms I did not predictor nothing forms & I predicted a named storm---30%= may get 1 thing right such as strength, but way wrong on direction & or time of landfall.---50%= after predicting no development a storm forms on the 5th day of period or I am right on strength & off on movement or visa versa---70%=after predicting no development a storm forms on 6th day of forecast or everything right except strength & or a bit off of movement of system.---100%= I predict no development & nothing happens or I predict everything pretty accurate except for just off on movement give or take 100 miles off or so..
WEEK#1==100%--#2=100%--#3=100%--#4=100%--#5=100%--#6=100%--#7=100%--#8=90%--#9=100%--#10=100%--#11=75%--#12=75%--#13=55%--#14=10%--#15=10%--#16=60%--#17=60%--#18=95%--#19=90%--#20=100%--#21=0%--#22=100%--#23=0%--#24=50%--#25=100% =1870.. for the 2009 season 74.80%
Season accuracy after the 2001 Hurricane season 70.77%
Season accuracy after the 2002 Hurricane season 75.20%
Season accuracy after the 2003 Hurricane season 53.20%
Season accuracy after the 2004 Hurricane season 68.87%
Season accuracy after the 2005 Hurricane season 51.56%
Season accuracy after the 2006 Hurricane season 70.62%
Season accuracy after the 2007 Hurricane season 72.76%
Season accuracy after the 2008 Hurricane season 58.46%

Predictions from Monday stay up no matter how bad until the following Sunday or Monday,this is the challenge of a 6/7 day forecast
... (For the week of Nov 24th through Nov30th) Last week I predicted that the low associated with Ida would move out to sea & not come back towards the U.S like some models indicated. This is my final week of predictions for 2009 & to wrap up this season I will call for no more named storms to form. Most systems this year have struggled against wind shear & dry conditions so I expect to finish out the season just the same. I came close to beating my all time best yearly score of 75.20% accuracy from 2002. This year was 74.80% not bad at all using the grading system above. I will see you right back here next year on June 1st to resume my weekly predictions.
Be sure to check out my tropical update videos right here


2003, jims top 5 #1)Halifax NS (Juan) #2)Cozumel (Claudette), #3)Brownsville (Erika), #4)Oviedo DR (Odette) #5)Elizabeth city N.C (Isabel).
2004 top 5 #1)Ft Walton/Pensacola (Ivan) ,#2)Cape hatteras (Gaston),#3)Acklins Isl BH (Frances), #4)Cozumel (0),#5)Cabo Corrientes Cuba (Ivan).
2005 top 5 Punta Allen MX (Emily), #2)Gulfport MS (Katrina), #3)Pascagoula MS (Katrina), #4)Vero bch (0), #5)Biloxi MS (Katrina) "notice the Mississippi heavy leaning"
2006 top 5 #1)vero bch (Ernesto), #2)Pascagoula MS(0), #3) Sable Isl NS (0), #4)Mobile Al (0), #5)Cape Hatteras (0),
2007 top 5 #1)Elizabeth city NC (Gabrielle), #2)Belize (Dean),#3)Bluefields Nicaragua (0), #4)Antigua (0), #5)Martinique(Dean).
2008 top 5 #1)St Martin (Omar), #2)Antigua/guadeloupe (0), #3)Grand Bahama (0), #4) Destin (0), #5) Vero to Lake worth (Fay) .

Picks for the 2009 season based on 13 or more named storms

VERY HIGH THREAT.......Grand Bahama Island.....Cancun Mexico.....Bluefields Nicaragua(Ida brush).....Ft Lauderdale Florida.....Pascagoula Mississippi.(ts Ida)....
HIGH THREATLake Worth Florida.....Destin to Ft Walton Florida(ts Claudette).....Mobile Alabama.(ts Ida)....Boca Raton Florida.....Guadeloupe(ts Erika).....Cat Island Bahamas.....
MODERATE THREAT...Tampico Mexico.....Deerfield bch Florida.....Gulfport Mississippi.(ts Ida)....Delray beach Florida.....Grenada.....Biloxi Mississippi.(ts Ida)....Cape Cod Massachusetts.....Elizabeth city North Carolina.....Boynton beach Florida.....
Ticking timebomb.....Barbados

Picks for the 2009 season based on a slow season of 9 to 12 named storms

La Pesca Mexico.....Acklins Isl Bahamas.....Merida Mexico.....Bimini Bahamas.....Beaufort South Carolina.....Miami Florida.....Key Largo Florida.....Florida City Florida.....Spring Hill Florida.....

If you have a comment or question about my predictions or about hurricanes,post it here at canetalk.com | During this week back in?

MODELS/PREDICTIONS

24 hour GFS model
48 hour GFS model
GFS/NAM models 11days,SW Atl animation
Long range model runs
NAM 5 day loop
ECMWF Euorpean model in color(fox tampa)
ECMWF homepage model Atlantic animation
Navy FNMOC world WXMAP Nogaps
gfs,cmc,nogaps,gfdl,wrf,ecmwf(PSU)
Animated versions of cmc,gfs,gfdl,nogaps,(FSU)
UKMET via wyoming.edu
forecaster Derek Ortt's opinions on the current storm
Weather underground Jeff Masters models tropical info
WINDS

current upper level winds
upper level winds in 48 hrs
Scatterometer storm surface winds
NOAA quikscat Atlantic basin
Current & past winds at all levels
MJO forecast
Tropical cyclone formation potential
African dust animation
is it warm or cold core system?
BOUY & SHIP DATA

(MAP)Buoy data
Ocean pressures from sailwx.info
ship obs & locations from sailwx
Sea level pressure anomalies
Nowcast make your own maps
Observations ,select a country


AFRICAN WAVES
Observations of waves in africa(WU)
closeup satelites of waves in Africa
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

sea surface temperatures(global daily)
Atlantic water temp map (WU)
Closeup water temp map of NE US
Closeup water temp map of SE US
SST animation NOAA atlantic basin
Easier to read water temp maps from TPC
NCEP hurricane potential, from SSTs to water temps
World ocean temperature anomalies over the past 12 weeks
SST Depths and heat potential (AOML)
SATELLITE LOOPS & TIDES
Crown Weather services zooms in on storm
Wave forecast's for western Atlantic basin
LSU vapor loop showing dry air
Color enhanced vapor loop
moving vapor loops from CIMSS atl basin
Water vapor earth scan lab channel 3 LSU
hurricanecity satellite page history etc;
Expected high tides for areas affected by tropical systems listed in alphabetical order


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