Jim's predictions for the week!!
WEEK#1=100%...#2=100%...#3=100%...#4=100%...#5=65%...#6=50%...#7=10%...#8=75%...#9=75%...#10=100%...#11=75%...#12=35%...#13=10% =895 for the 2008 season so far 68.84%
Season accuracy after the 2002 Hurricane season 75.20%
Season accuracy after the 2003 Hurricane season 53.20%
Season accuracy after the 2004 Hurricane season 68.87%
Season accuracy after the 2005 Hurricane season 51.56%
Season accuracy after the 2006 Hurricane season 70.62%
Season accuracy after the 2007 Hurricane season 72.76%
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... (for the week of Aug 31st through Sept 7th )...This past week was not a good week of predictions calling for Hurricane Gustav to eventually hit South Florida from the south. The only thing I got right from last week was predicting a movement near the Caymans as a cat 2 & rapid stregthening thereafter. I also said that 95L which is now Hanna could become Hanna, but head north towards Bermuda of course this is still possible. I will only grade myself 10% accuracy for last week and just over 68% so far for this year. As of this post on Sunday evening we have Hurricane Gustav in the S.E Gulf of Mexico heading towards Louisiana. I expect this system to maintain cat 3 status and come ashore right over Lafourche Parish moving N.W on Monday morning. I think there will be flooding in many areas but not quite as bad as expected due to Gustav not strengthening. I think Gustav could move very slowly once inland & be a huge rainmaker over Louisiana & maybe the biggest story will be Lafayette flooding. Next is Hanna a tropical storm near the SE Bahamas moving WNW. I expect hanna to strengthen in the western Bahamas near Andros Island late week and turn N.W skirting the entire East coast of Florida as a cat 2 hurricane by the weekend. I think Hanna will move right up the coast & inland in South carolina as a cat 2 hurricane possibly cat 3. Elsewhere we have 2 more invests with 98L in the central Atlantic & 97L in the East Atlantic. I expect both of these systems to move NW into the open Atlantic with 97L becoming TS Ike in the process. Yet another strong wave is exiting Africa & this could develop into Josephine while crossing the Atlantic and become a hurricane by late weekend. I wish the people of Louisiana the best of luck with Gustav & lets hope the levees hold and there is a low death toll. Be sure to check out my tropical update videos right here |
In both 2003 & 2004 I picked 4 out of the top 5 locations that were affected by tropical systems.In 2005 it was two of the top five areas with Mississippi hit by Katrina and Punta Allen Mexico by Emily. Despite a comparative slow season in 2006 I picked 4 locations that were affected . In 2007 four of my top 20 locations were hit. If a Hurricane & or T-Storm comes within 70 Miles to the left or or 50 miles to the right or south of any one of these areas this season,consider it a hit. Since 2003 I have picked the Number one city to be hit with 2006 the first time this did not happen. Covered in yellow indicates the area was affected this year.
VERY HIGH THREAT.......St Martin /Antigua/ Guadeloupe.....Grand Bahama Island.....Destin to Pensacola Fla.....Vero bch to Lake worth Fla..(TS Fay)......Cancun Mexico..(TS Dolly)..Norfolk Virginia.....Tampico Mexico
HIGH THREAT....Cat Isl Bahamas.....Le Pesca Mexico.....Isle of youth Cuba (hurricane Gustav).....Bluefields Nicaragua.....Homossasa Fla.....Matagorda Texas.....
MODERATE THREAT....Cape May NJ.....Merida Mexico.....San Salvador Bahamas.....Beaufort S.C.....Spring Hill Fla.....Grand Isle Louisiana(Hurricane Gustav).....Key West Fla..(TS Fay)
Ticking timebombs.....Morgan city Louisiana(hurricane Gustav)....Bimini Bahamas....Have your battery backup systems in place before you get hit
current upper level winds
48 hour atlantic AVN model
upper level winds in 48 hrs
MRF/NGM/NAM models up to 11days,SW Atl basin
Long range model runs
NAM (North American Mesoscale) 5 day loop
ECMWF Euorpean model (fox tampa)
ECMWF model animated
Current & past winds at all levels
Animated versions of gfs,cmc,nogaps,gfdl,wrf
Animated versions of cmc,gfs,gfdl,nogaps,ukmet
Navy FNMOC world WXMAP Nogaps
Scatterometer storm surface winds
NOAA quikscat
Gary Gray's Trantech Model discussion(****disabled for 2006 season****)
forecaster Derek Ortt's opinions on the current storm
Crown Weather services Graphical model layouts
African dust animation
Ocean pressures from sailwx.info
caribbean obs Get observations from Caribbean Islands & Mexico here
closeup satelites of waves in Africa
enhanced African waves (fenmoc)>
Great atlantic water temp map from weatherunderground
Naval temp map with satelite overlay
Closeup water temp map of NE US
Closeup water temp map of SE US
SST animation NOAA atlantic basin
Easier to read water temp maps from TPC(although not updated as often as above link)
Here you can run animated historical water temps for the Atlantic basin from USF.
NCEP hurricane potential, from SSTs to water temps
Oceanic heat content for atlantic basin(rsmas Miami)
World ocean temperature anomalies over the past 12 weeks
SST Depths and heat potential (AOML)
keep track of the MJO (moisture)here
Expected high tides for areas affected by tropical systems listed in alphabetical order
Naval map of wave heights
Color enhanced vapor loop
moving vapor loops from CIMSS
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