DISCLAIMER:These weekly predictions are just for fun(although I may be right from time to time)
DISCLAIMER:I am not a meteorologist,I am not a forecaster,forecasters have degrees.I check satellite,Models & upper air flows to make my decisions ,basically throwing the dice. Sometimes I may notice something the forecast models do not pick up on. For official advisories and forecast's go to The National hurricane center.
Updated every Monday.(Times may vary) but there will be updated predictions for significant hurricane threats
Accuracy basis per week=0%=a storm forms a day or two after saying no development or completely off on every aspect of current system for the week & something else forms I did not predictor nothing forms & I predicted a named storm---30%= may get 1 thing right such as strength, but way wrong on direction & or time of landfall.---50%= after predicting no development a storm forms on the 5th day of period or I am right on strength & off on movement or visa versa---70%=after predicting no development a storm forms on 6th day of forecast or everything right except strength & or a bit off of movement of system.---100%= I predict no development & nothing happens or I predict everything pretty accurate except for just off on movement give or take 100 miles off or so.. WEEK#1==100%--#2=100%--#3=100%--#4=100%....=so far for the 2009 season 100%
Season accuracy after the 2001 Hurricane season 70.77%
Season accuracy after the 2002 Hurricane season 75.20%
Season accuracy after the 2003 Hurricane season 53.20%
Season accuracy after the 2004 Hurricane season 68.87%
Season accuracy after the 2005 Hurricane season 51.56%
Season accuracy after the 2006 Hurricane season 70.62%
Season accuracy after the 2007 Hurricane season 72.76%
Season accuracy after the 2008 Hurricane season 58.46%
Predictions from Monday stay up no matter how bad until the following Sunday or Monday,this is the challenge of a 6/7 day forecast
... (For the week of June 29th through July 5th) Last week I predicted no named storms to form due to unfavorable conditions in the basin. We had an invest 93L in the western Caribbean but shear and land interaction finished it off, so I will go with 100% for last week with 100% so far for the year. For this week we start with the remains of 93L over the yucatan. I expect this system to move into the Bay of Campeche and flare up once again. I doubt this system could become a depression but it is possible before moving into Mexico, however I expect no named storm out of this. There could also end up being an invest late week in the Eastern Caribbean as the cape Verde systems are lining up with the African dust light. Elsewhere I expect unfavorable conditions for this week with no named storms to form. Be sure to check out my tropical update videos right here
2003, jims top 5 #1)Halifax NS (Juan) #2)Cozumel (Claudette), #3)Brownsville (Erika), #4)Oviedo DR (Odette) #5)Elizabeth city N.C (Isabel). 2004 top 5 #1)Ft Walton/Pensacola (Ivan) ,#2)Cape hatteras (Gaston),#3)Acklins Isl BH (Frances), #4)Cozumel (0),#5)Cabo Corrientes Cuba (Ivan). 2005 top 5 Punta Allen MX (Emily), #2)Gulfport MS (Katrina), #3)Pascagoula MS (Katrina), #4)Vero bch (0), #5)Biloxi MS (Katrina) "notice the Mississippi heavy leaning" 2006 top 5 #1)vero bch (Ernesto), #2)Pascagoula MS(0), #3) Sable Isl NS (0), #4)Mobile Al (0), #5)Cape Hatteras (0), 2007 top 5 #1)Elizabeth city NC (Gabrielle), #2)Belize (Dean),#3)Bluefields Nicaragua (0), #4)Antigua (0), #5)Martinique(Dean). 2008 top 5 #1)St Martin (Omar), #2)Antigua/guadeloupe (0), #3)Grand Bahama (0), #4) Destin (0), #5) Vero to Lake worth (Fay) .
Picks for the 2009 season based on 13 or more named storms
VERY HIGH THREAT.......Grand Bahama Island.....Cancun Mexico.....Bluefields Nicaragua.....Ft Lauderdale Florida.....Pascagoula Mississippi..... HIGH THREATLake Worth Florida.....Destin to Ft Walton Florida.....Mobile Alabama.....Boca Raton Florida.....Guadeloupe.....Cat Island Bahamas..... MODERATE THREAT...Tampico Mexico.....Deerfield bch Florida.....Gulfport Mississippi.....Delray beach Florida.....Grenada.....Biloxi Mississippi.....Cape Cod Massachusetts.....Elizabeth city North Carolina.....Boynton beach Florida.....
Ticking timebomb.....Barbados
Picks for the 2009 season based on a slow season of 9 to 12 named storms
La Pesca Mexico.....Acklins Isl Bahamas.....Merida Mexico.....Bimini Bahamas.....Beaufort South Carolina.....Miami Florida.....Key Largo Florida.....Florida City Florida.....Spring Hill Florida.....
